general terms

GENERAL TERMS

FUTURES STUDIES

Futures studies is the systematic study of possible, probable and preferable futures including the worldviews and myths that underlie each future. It is used the plural term “futures” studies rather than the singular “future” studies because this plural form opens up the territory for envisioning and creating alternative and preferred futures.
The starting point of futures studies grounds on the assumption that future is not predictable nor predestined: Futures studies analyze such facts and phenomena which bear an influence on the future, research alternative paths of development of alternative futures and investigate what kinds of choices lead to the best and most acceptable future state.
(see also Inayatullah, 2013b; World Futures Studies Federation; Finland Future Research Centre)

ANTICIPATION

All efforts to “know the future” in the sense of thinking about and using the future are forms of anticipation. Equally the future is incorporated into all phenomena, conscious or unconscious, physical or ideational, as anticipation.
The DoA[Discipline of Anticipation] covers all “ways of knowing” the later-than-now as anticipation, from those forms of anticipation that are observed, for instance, in a tree that loses its leaves in the Autumn to human planning that attempts to colonize the future and efforts to make sense of emergent novelty in the present by finding inspiration in systemically discontinuous imaginary futures. Looked at as a “way-of-knowing” the DoAaddresses the codification of the myriad of systems of anticipation, both conscious and non-conscious. The DoA develops, sorts, and diffuses descriptions of the processes/systems of anticipation or how the later-than-now enters into reality.
(Miller, Poli, Rossel 2013)

FORESIGHT

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective, action and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and to actively engage stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical futures. It can be envisaged as a triangle combining “Thinking the Future”, “Debating the Future” and “Shaping the Future”.
(IKnow Project; European Foresight Platform; Hines & Bishop, 2015)

FORECASTING

The term forecasting describes a mathematical, extrapolation-based approach to drawing future paths. Forecasting is the process of thinking about the future as an extension of the past and present: a process based on known data, facts, values and behaviour to predict aspects of the future.
(See also Cole 2001, in Petermann 2014; Hines & Bishop 2015; Evans 2004)

TRENDS

Broadly defined as ‘a general direction in which something is developing or changing’, a trend most commonly refers to a ‘manifestation type’ (Miller, 2006) and/or to a mathematical given. The first is build around the gathering of selected signs taken from socially situated contexts. The second, in statistics, stands for the orientation taken by a series of data over a certain period of time. In both cases, the trend takes shape in reference to another trend and cannot exist alone as it participates in a more complex system. During the course of its changing condition, the intensity and duration of the trend can alter and thus be named differently in accordance to its size and nature.
(Rudkin, 2015)

Trends are quantities or changes that move incrementally in a specific direction over a long period of time. The capture the value of the quantity and its rate of change (if known). One can always say “more” or “less,” or “increasing” or “decreasing” or even “continuing” when describing a trend.
(Hines & Bishop, 2015)

Trends are those change factors that arise from broadly generalizable change and innovation. They are experienced by everyone and often in more or less the same contexts insofar as they create broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach.
(Saritas & Smith, 2011)

What we mean by a trend is something that represents a deeper change, not a fad. If we make an analogy with meteorology, trends would be climate changes rather than variations in the weather. (…)
Trends are long-term, often irreversible, changes that frequently take place over a number of years and which often creep up imperceptibly. The effect of a strong trend on a phenomenon can often be measured and forecast.
(Lindgren &Bandhold, 2003)

WEAK SIGNAL

Weak signals refer to the early signs of possible but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation. They represent the first signs of paradigm shifts, or future trends, drivers or discontinuities.
(Saritas & Smith, 2011)

METHODS & TOOLS

ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING

Scanning is the ongoing, year-round process of looking for trends and events in the external environment that may have implications for the organization. (…) It may lead to discovery of issues that the analyst can proactively bring to the attention of the organization, or it may provide information that will later prove useful to a particular foresight activity.
(Hines & Bishop, 2015)

HORIZON SCANNING

Horizon Scanning is a structured and continuous process of reviewing and analyzing current literature, Web sites, and other media aimed to monitor, analyze and position frontier issues that are relevant for policy, research and strategic agendas. The types of issues mapped by Horizon Scanning include new/emerging: trends, policies, practices, stakeholders, services, products, technologies, behaviors, attitudes, surprises (Wild Cards) and seeds of change (Weak Signals).
(See also Cornish, 2005; IKnow Project)

CROSS LEVEL ANALYSIS

A four quadrant framework which shows the relationships of the interior and exterior of the individual and the collective. The four quadrants may be conceived of as four aspects of any entity, the upper half corresponding to its individuality (‘agency’), the lower half to its ‘communion’ with the collective. (…)
The upper right quadrant deals with the objectively measurable aspects or behaviours of single individuals, and is thereby termed behavioural. The lower right deals with communities or societies of these individuals and their external interactions, and so is termed social. Technological, economic, political and social systems are found here, so this is where much of STEEP analysis takes place.
While the right hand side is the arena of objective measurement, the left-hand side is the realm of subjective awareness. The upper-left quadrant deals with the interior of the individual; that is, with individual subjective awareness. This is where we experience our hopes, joys, dreams, cognitive capacities and intentions. It is thus termed intentional. When individuals exchange their beliefs and experiences with others, a shared awareness, worldview or culture is established, so the lower left quadrant is termed the cultural.
(Voros, 2001)

CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS / CLA

Causal layered analysis is based on the assumption that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution and the actors responsible for creating transformation. (…)
The first level is the ‘litany’ – quantitative trends, problems, often exaggerated, often used for political purposes (overpopulation, for example) – usually presented by the news media. (…)The litany level is the most visible and obvious, requiring few analytic capabilities. It is believed, rarely questioned.
The second level is concerned with social causes, including economic, cultural, political and historical factors (rising birthrates, lack of family planning, for example). Interpretation is given to quantitative data. (…) This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The role of the state and other actors and interests is often explored at this level. While the data is often questioned, the language of questioning does not contest the paradigm in which the issue is framed. It remains obedient to it.
The third, deeper level is concerned with structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women’s power; lack of social security, the population/ consumption debate, for example). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, and cultural structures that are actor­invariant (not dependent on who the actors are). (…)
The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious, often emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non­statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, for example). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head. This is the root level of questioning. However, questioning itself finds its limits since the frame of questioning must enter other frameworks of understanding—the mythical, for example. (…)
CLA however, does not privilege a particular level. Moving up and down layers we can integrate analysis and synthesis, and horizontally we can integrate discourses, ways of knowing and worldviews, thereby increasing the richness of the analysis.
(Inayatullah, 2005)

REFRAMING

The notion of reframing recognizes that those stories already lodged in people’s subconscious are powerful, and that we need to have equally powerful new stories to gain people’s attention. To move people to new thinking, we need to supply new stories–ones that are compelling enough and make strong enough connections to people’s worldviews, that they succeed against the frames and stories that people already have. (…) That kind of reframing recognizes existing frames and narratives. Rather than use data to argue, reframing offers a story, in this case, a story that says, “It doesn’t have to be unpleasant. You have the power to make it fun!”
(Jarratt&Mahaffie, 2009)

SCENARIO

Tools for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which today’s decisions might be played out… scenarios resemble a set of stories, written or spoken, built around carefully constructed plots… good scenarios are plausible and surprising, they have the power to break old stereotypes, and their creators assume ownership and put them to work. using scenarios is rehearsing the future. by recognizing the warning signs and the drama that is unfolding, one can avoid surprises, adapt and act effectively.
(Schwartz in Zindato, 2016)

Scenarios take us into a possible future. They describe a world to come, making a systematic set of assumptions about the drivers shaping that world. They may be brief and descriptive or they may include story-like narratives that represent the point of view of personas in the future. They may include a “history of the future”—how we get from here to there.
(IFTF Institute for the Future – Foresight Toolkit)

VISIONING

The process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals.
(Cornish, 2005)

VISUALIZATION

In a design process, qualitative, sensorial and conceptual elements are described on a cognitive level, which is characteristic of design process itself. Therefore it is important to develop visual tools based not on mimetic and analogical mechanisms but on symbolic processes.
In fact, visualization takes places through a symbolic mediation between thinking and communication. (…)
Visualization, being a descriptive and interpretative attitude, establishes itself in the role of a pivotal point in describing the present. It states the passage from a knowledge creation phase to a knowledge transfer phase.
(Colombi,PhD Thesis 2007)

MOODBOARD

Mood boards are visually stimulating collections of images, artefacts, colour or material trends, used to suggest different design directions. They are tools for inspiration, often used to generate discussion within the project team about issues which are difficult to describe in writing or verbally, such as styles, forms, meanings, emotional qualities, lifestyles or cultural trends.
(See also Colombi, 2010; Experientia Glossary of methods)

PANNELLI DI LIFESTYLE

(…)approfondiscono il contesto materiale di riferimento, descrivendo lo stile di vita del target potenziale che si ispira ai valori dello scenario stesso. Questa tavola traduce l’idea che il prodotto moda, come prodotto industriale, non possa esistere se non in relazione all’utente che lo utilizzerà e al contesto d’uso nel quale la relazione utente-prodotto avrà luogo.
(Colombi, 2010)

TREND BOOK

Il trend book si riferisce invece più puntualmente a settori merceologici specifici, coprendo tutta la filiera produttiva: a partire da contenuti trasversali, vengono proposti book per prodotti semilavorati (tessuti, pellami, maglieria e stampe), per un particolare settore (abbigliamento prêt à porter, casual, sportivo; intimo e mare; accessori, cosmesi) declinato per una target precisa (donna/uomo/bambino), articolando progressivamente i diversi temi in maniera più particolareggiata. I temi proposti sono generalmente da 5 a 7, in relazione a diversi target e occasioni d’uso, e vengono sviluppati in maniera verticale arrivando sino alla proposta di un prodotto finito, con sketch di alcuni capisaldi per sviluppare il concept di collezione attraverso la definizione dei caratteri tipologici e del linguaggio stilisti coadottato, dei materiali, dei colori, delle stampe, dei dettagli costruttivi e delle finiture.
(Colombi, 2010)

MINDMAPPING

Mind mapping is a technique applied to brainstorming and other group discussion methods (…). It allows a group’s ideas to be charted in logical groupings fairly quickly, even when ideas are given in a non-sequential manner. This technique allows efficient brainstorming for ideas and at the same time creates a skeletal framework for later categorisation of the information generated.
(EFP European Foresight Platform)